My Personal Finance Blog

Among the questions often asked by clients when selecting an adviser or a system for CFD trading is what percentage of recommendations they can expect to be winners, and how much should they expect to make each month, year or whatever. These form part of a natural psychological comfort zone, but may be part of the reason why so many people fail as traders.

In any area of speculation, whether it is stockmarket investment, spreadbetting, forex trading or CFDs, if the underlying system has a small edge, it is only the first part of potential success. The key to achieving constant returns lies with a correct approach to the win/loss ratio and not in expecting any particular level of gains, which can distort the underlying methodology. CFD traders have the ability to go long and short at will, and online trading makes it easy to adjust stops and targets at any time.

An example of a good win/loss ratio that fails

Consider this example: a CFD trader selects a system where there is a supposedly proven record of seven out of each ten trades proving to be winners. The idea might be that each trade has a target return of 3%, and if it is achieved the position is closed. If the trade however shows a loss of 3%, the expectation is that it should recover and the position is doubled up, with the hope of returning to parity or even making a 6% gain. Now if market or share movements were a random sequence, it would not make any difference where one entered or exited. The overall returns would over time be neither a gain nor a loss, but costs and the spread on trading would result in a virtual guaranteed loss in due course (the casino approach).

Having a slight edge is not enough

If this system had an edge though, the expectation might be that the 3% target would possibly be hit six out of ten times, thus making it a virtual winning approach. But the problem lies in the fact that although markets and shares do have short term periods when there appears to be random action, they can both trade a range and trend strongly at other times – this is what is known as regular irregularity, which might seem a paradox, but happens all the time in financial markets. Shares often move very quickly in one direction, and this trend can continue for far longer than expected, which creates two problems.

First, taking a 3% profit on a trade may appear to be very satisfactory, but it can often be seen in hindsight that the profit was taken too early, so despite achieving a winning trade there is an element of regret that more was not taken. Second, if the position is showing a loss, then the trade should in the real world be deemed to be incorrect and closed out. But in using such a system as this, by doubling up or averaging the position on losses, all that is achieved is an increase in risk – the trader might be lucky in some situations, but one or two trades out of the ten may cause severe problems. There is also the emotional capital that is tied up in losing trades.

This type of system typically might produce say six 3% winners, two evens (where one position was doubled up and returned to parity) and two 10% losers. Here the overall loss would be 2%, despite the good win/loss ratio, and this is clearly a dangerous way to play the markets, but many traders operate exactly in that way.

Improving the risk/reward

The first point is to set a stop loss on each trade and stick to it. Doubling up simply doubles the risk – that is fine if there is another system signal that reinforces the first trade, but generally that is not the case. The problem that then occurs is that if the stop and targets are quite close in percentage terms, the bouts of short term randomness mean that it can almost be like coin tossing, which with costs is a futile approach.

The key is therefore to ensure the gains are much greater than the losses, so that even if one only achieves four wins out of ten, there may be two big winners in there. If a trader decides that a 3% average loss is acceptable, then what average gain should be sought? This is the $64 question, and the key is to let profits runs as much as possible within a clearly defined trend. The following rules are part of the methodology used at Blue Index for the longs and shorts CFD portfolio, and the long term results have so far proved more than satisfactory.

Some simple rules for a consistent winning approach

1. If searching for stock trades, try to choose high volatility or beta shares – these have a higher chance of being in a trend rather than trading a range or exhibiting random action.

2. The expected initial target should always be at least twice the stop loss. If the average stop loss set is 3%, the CFD trader should look for 6%-plus gains on each trade as a starting point.

3. Try to set individual stops and limits with reference to the underlying action. If a share has moved 10% one day, it is likely to exhibit an intra-day range of much more than 3%, so the stop and target should be widened accordingly. Also support and resistance levels are very useful reference points for setting price targets.

4. If the trade hits the initial target, either close the position if support or resistance around that area is seen to be valid, or move the stop up to protect profits and let the position run.

5. If there is a sudden reversal in share price trend, close the position, whether it is winning or losing. The swings and roundabouts of trading usually mean that these unexpected trend changes even themselves out.

6. Make sure you are never exposed too much in one direction. If for instance the market falls heavily from the open, then it doesn’t matter, as even if there are more longs and shorts in your list of open positions, the huge gains on the shorts should outweigh the stops hit on the longs.

Target returns

As for target returns, many traders have unrealistic expectations. A system that can offer huge returns inherently has to have a higher risk, but bear in mind this simple fact. Warren Buffett has achieved just over 20% per annum returns on his investment fund, and he did not need to use leverage to become the world’s second wealthiest man.

Often people get confused while choosing building materials for their home. There are so many options like using tiles, vinyl, lamination and others. But if you believe in learning from history then natural stones will be the obvious choice for you. Many ancient buildings and palaces which stand erect instead of those ruthless attacks of nature, speak in favor of natural stones. Moreover, the multi beneficial qualities (like being sturdy, long-lasting and elegant looking) of these stones are something that have kept them in demand till today. There are mainly three types of natural stones available. These are metamorphic, igneous and sedimentary. Among the natural stones which are available in market granite stones are the examples of igneous type, marble and slate are examples of metamorphic type and travertine and limestone are the examples of sedimentary type. Though all of these are products of nature yet their uses for home decoration vary greatly according to their features.

Granite tiles and countertops are generally used to decorate kitchen places as these are strong and heat resistant materials. On the other hand, marble can be a good material to beautify your floors but it should be used with care as it is a very soft material.

As far as surface decoration is concerned, travertine is a popular choice nowadays. These stones are generally light colored and full of pitted holes. These holes are filled with grout and then polished to get eye-catching designs. If used in a rustic setting then limestone looks fabulous. The use of limestone as a flooring material is a century old process. If it is sealed properly then it can last for a long time. Slate is another natural stone which is mostly used in traffic areas for its durability factor.

They are also popular as material to make base of a patio. In a weather that has moisture in the air these stones are the best choices to install for their damp-proof nature. For paving the pathways or surrounding swimming pools these stones are the most effective as they can form resistance against the harsh climate.

Another popular use of natural stones is seen in fireplaces of most houses. Generally these stones are used to surround the fireplace area. The dual purpose of saving it from heat and making it attractive in look is served by the use of natural stone in it.

So if you are really searching for a building material that will help to protect your dream home from the natural decay with time then natural stones are inevitable for you.

However, I have an old laptop with a perfectly good display going to waste in my basement. The laptop itself is almost useless—the keyboard is flaky, the mouse buttons don’t work, and the hard drive is barely large enough to install Windows XP. I found a way to turn that laptop into a second external monitor though, and it didn’t require any extra hardware.

As a laptop user, you probably know that you can connect an external monitor to the video connector on your laptop and switch the display from the laptop’s small LCD to the larger external monitor. In this situation, you see the same image on both the laptop’s LCD and the external monitor. However, if you’re running Windows XP Professional or Windows XP Home on your laptop and have a supported video adapter and a recent video adapter driver installed, when you connect an external monitor to your laptop, you can configure a multiple monitor environment using the DualView feature. You can then extend your desktop across two monitors, so that you can surf the Internet on one monitor while you take notes in Word on the other monitor.

Activating the DualView feature

If you have a video adapter with built-in DualView functionality and a video adapter driver that can access the feature, activating Windows XP’s DualView feature is a snap. To begin, you should shut down your laptop and make sure the external monitor is turned off. Then connect the monitor to the video connector on your laptop.

Once you have Windows XP up and running again, turn on the external monitor. If your laptop is like most, you’ll have a special hotkey keystroke combination that will allow you to switch between the individual monitors as well as activate both monitors at the same time. You should switch the setting such that only the laptop monitor is activated. Doing so will ensure that the second monitor is properly configured.

Then, access the Display Properties dialog box by right-clicking the desktop and selecting the Properties command. Next, select the Settings tab. When you do, your dialog box should look similar to the one shown in Figure A.

To continue, select the second monitor icon in the graphic. When you see that the Extend My Windows Desktop Onto This Monitor check box is enabled, select it, as shown in Figure B. At this point, if you hover your mouse over the monitor graphics, you’ll see that number 1 is listed as the Primary Display and number 2 is listed as the Secondary Display with a set of numbers in parentheses.

For example, with a screen resolution of 800 by 600, the coordinates would be (800,0). This set of coordinates indicates at what location the second monitor icon starts. If you wish, you can click and drag either monitor icon to any position. When you’re finished, click Apply. As soon as you do, your second monitor will come to life.

Depending on how you positioned the monitor icons, you may want to make sure that they correctly represent your actual monitor’s physical positions. To investigate, click the Identify button at the bottom of the dialog box. You’ll then see large number appear on each monitor icon showing which monitor corresponds with each icon.

To complete the DualView configuration, just click OK to close the Display Properties dialog box. You can then begin using the two monitors to spread out your work.

Dubai Holidays: Useful information on Dubai before coming to this Emirate to avoid (unpleasant) surprises.

In this section the following topics will be discussed:

* Dubai Public Holidays
* Time in Dubai
* Dubai Currency: How much is my money in AED or Dirham?
* Dubai Maps
* Banks in Dubai
* Hospitals
* Education in Dubai
* Dubai Visa Information
* Useful addresses and phone numbers
* Dubai Insurance
* Do’s and don’ts
* Dress code
* Weather in Dubai
* Learn Arabic
* Crime in Dubai
* Electricity and Water
* Television in Dubai
* Shipping goods
* Mail / Postal service

Dubai Public Holidays, Dubai Holidays, Dubai Ramadan, Dubai New Year:

Dubai public holidays are in 2008:

1 Jan New Year’s Day.
10 Jan Al-Hijra (Islamic New Year).
20 Mar Mouloud (Birth of the Prophet).
30 Jul Leilat al-Meiraj (Ascension of the Prophet).
2 Oct Eid al-Fitr (End of Ramadan).
2 Dec National Day.
9 Dec Eid al-Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice).
29 Dec Al-Hijra (Islamic New Year).

Dubai Currency, how much is your money in AED or Dirham?

The official abbreviation AED is often written as DH or Dhs in many shops but that is incorrect and unofficial.

The dirham was introduced in 1973 And is sub devided into 100 fils. It has been pegged to the U.S. Dollar since November 1997: 1 U.S.Dollar = 3.67290 dirhams, Or 1 dirham = 0.272264 dollar (rate of may 10, 2008).

The banknotes are 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000 dirhams and the coins are in denominations of 1, 5, 10, 25, 50 fils, and 1 dirham. The 1, 5 and 10 fils are struck in bronze, with the higher denominations in cupro-nickel.

Visa For Dubai:

A visa for Dubai is not always required.

There are several types of visas for visitors. Citizens of the Arab Gulf Co-operation Council(AGCC) memberstates (Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia) do not need one just like nationals of the following Countries: Andorra, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brunei, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany ,Greece, Netherlands, Hong Kong, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Monaco, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, San Marino, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States of America, Vatican City.

Weather in Dubai, the Climate of Dubai and Dubai Weather Forecast:

The weather in Dubai can be definitely described as hot. The Dubai weather is most pleasant between November and March.The temperatures in the winter
Varies around 23 degrees Celsius during the day. In the summer the temperature is between 40-50 degrees celsius.

Annual Weather Dubai with minimum and maximum average temperature ( in degrees C) per month:

January (14/24degrees C), February (15/25 degrees C), March (18/28 degrees C), April (21/33 degrees C), May (25/38 degrees C), June (27/40 degrees C),July (30/41 degrees C), August (30/41 degrees C), September (28/40 degrees C), October (24/35 degrees C), November (20/31 degrees C), December (16/26 degrees C).

The sea temperature during the year is between 21 and 33 degrees C. The number of hours that the sun shines varies from 8 to 11.5 hours per day while the Humidity is between 80 and 90%. So the humidity remains high during winter.In the summer both high humidity and high temperatures make the climate of Dubai a very uncomfortable one.

Electricity and Water of Dubai Rental Properties:

Electricity and Water are handled by DEWA, the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority, which was formed in 1992 as a merger of Dubai Electric Company And Dubai Water Department. Utility bills are settled directly on a monthly base with the DEWA when renting an apartment or other property.

Voltage: The voltage in Dubai is 220v. Most sockets are three pin (exactly the same as in the UK), although adapters for two pin plugs are available at most hotels. Those using US appliances will require an adapter to handle the difference in voltage. Appliances purchased in the UAE will generally have two-pin plugs attached.

Drinking water: Tap water is safe to use although bottled water, which is served in hotels and restaurants, is recommended for drinking. Water and electricity prices in Dubai. Residents pay 3 fils (1 UAE dirham=100 fils) per gallon and will continue to do so as long they do not use more Than 6,000 gallons, the price will then go up to 3.5 fils per gallon, and even 4 fils per gallon for consumers who sap more than 12,001 gallons from the tap.

Electricity fees will range from 20 fils to 33 fils per kilowatt hour depending if usage exceeds 2,000 or 10,001 kilowatt hours. There is no mains gas supply, so gas appliances must be fed by canisters connected via a tap outside your property. Address: Dubai Electricity and Water Authority Building, Al Karghout Street, P.O. Box 564, Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Mineral makeup that is Good for your Skin and No Break Outs-
We all thought mineral makeup was supposed to be good for our skin. So why does it make so many of us break out, get clogged pores, and all that comes along with these skin problems? I thought to myself I really dont spend much money on makeup. Why not do a little research and find the best mineral makeup, with the best ingredients for my skin, and not worry about the prices. To my dismay, the makeup that I found really was not that much more than the cruddy stuff I was currently using. Anyways, Im rambling.
To make a long story short, I found La Bella Donna. How are they different you ask? They offer a makeup line with no cheap fillers like corn starch.La Bella Donna Makeup is made with a Zinc Oxide base. If you did not already know, Zinc Oxide is healthy for your skin, and it contains SPF. So now I am wearing a makeup that helps protect my skin from UVA and UVB rays, and, it does not clog my pores. Literally, every day I thank La Bella Donnafor their invention. Their most popular product is the La Bella Donna line of foundations. They offer a loose and pressed powder that are amazing, and each foundation runs for about , but they last for a really long time. So why is it so much money? Well, Zinc Oxide costs more money, and La Bella Donnaputs a lot of care into using the purest crushed minerals. As you can tell, La Bella Donna is worth the money in way more ways than one. Ok, I have another for you, if you cant justify spending on a foundation.
GloMinerals, I just love their concealers. It is a wonderful line for acne cover up. Most of their products also use a Zinc Oxide base, mixed in with Titanium Oxide to help bring down the cost, two common ingredients to sunscreen. I love the range of colors that GloMinerals has available. TheGloMinerals foundations start at around , and the GloMinerals Camouflage oil free concealers start at . GloMinerals has a complete skin care product line, so you can really get lost in their products. I recommend starting with their makeup, and then going from there.