16 OctHow the Financial Markets Really Work

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You probably take for granted that you can buy or sell a share or stock at a moment’s notice. Place an order with the broker and within seconds it is executed. Have you ever stopped to wonder how this is possible. Whenever an instrument is bought or sold there must be someone on the other end of the transaction. If you wanted to buy 100 shares of McDonalds you must find a willing seller and visa versa. It is very unlikely that you are always going to find someone who is interested in buying or selling the same quantity at exactly the same time – this just does not happen. So – how does it work? This is where the MARKET MAKER comes in!!

The market maker is like a wholesaler. Customers arrive and leave all day long, some returning goods to the warehouse, others leaving with new purchases from 8.00 am until 4.30 pm every weekday (in the UK). The difference with this operation is that the wholesaler only has one item to trade, which are all identical. These items are continually bought and sold. The only responsibility that the wholesaler has it that he must keep his doors open during market hours, and he is responsible for setting the prices, second by second and hour by hour. He makes his money by buying at a lower price and selling at a higher price. This is known as the spread and has two components – a bid price and an ask price. He makes his money on the difference between the two which is his profit. This may only be pence or cents, but when you are dealing in 100′s of millions of shares it is a vast amount of money.

Now – let me ask you a question – what happens when a customer comes in for a large buy order, but there are insufficient goods available. A normal wholesaler in the real world would buy in more goods from the manufacturer to fulfil the order. Our wholesaler does not have this option, he has to encourage people to sell to him, otherwise he has nothing to offer his customers. So what does he do? ( here’s a clue – he sets his own prices for the market !!!) He has two options available. Firstly he could move his prices down fast and frighten people into panic selling. Alternatively he could move his prices up quickly, and encourage people to take some profits and selling. Lets assume that he decides to take the first course of action and he moves his prices down fast ( probably on the basis of some fictitious piece of news or gossip, or even a world event)

Surprised? – you shouldn’t be. This happens every hour of every day of every week in all markets around the world. Is this market manipulation – yes of course it is. It also explains why markets fall faster than they rise – in the fall the wholesaler is in a hurry to get new supplies of goods, on the way back up he is taking his time making profits. This technique is known as ‘ shaking the tree’ for obvious reasons!!! Naturally he cannot frighten everyone too much, otherwise he could end up with too many sellers and not enough buyers (he could of course have moved the prices up to encourage some clients to sell and take their profit – there is always more than one way to skin a cat!!!!)

The wholesaler is of course the MARKET MAKER. They are professional traders. They are licensed and regulated and have been approved to ‘make a market’ in the shares you wish to buy and sell. They are usually large internationally banking organisations, usually with thousands or tens of thousands of employees worldwide. Some of them will be household names others you will never have heard of, but they all have one thing in common – they make vast amounts of money. As you can now see (I hope) the market makers are in a unique and privileged position, of being able to see both sides of the market (supply and demand). They also have the unique advantage of being able to set their prices accordingly. Now – I don’t want you to run away with the idea that the entire market is rigged, it is not, as no one market maker could achieve this on their own, but you do need to understand how they use windows of opportunity and a variety of trading conditions to manipulate prices.

The above explanation is of course a vast over simplification but the principle remains true. In America, the NYSE and AMEX have a single member known as a specialist that acts as the market maker for a given security. Other exchanges such as the NASDAQ, have several competing market makers for the same security. Do they ever work together? (I’ll leave you to be the judge of that !!!!). On the London Stock Exchange there are official market makers for many securities (but not for shares in the largest and most heavily traded companies, which instead use an electronic automated system called SETS).

Now why I have spent so much time explaining what these companies do when actually you never see them at all. The answer is very simple. As professional traders they sit in the middle of the market, looking at both sides of the market. They will know precisely the balance of supply and demand at any one time. Naturally this information will never be available to you, but there is a way to interpret it from a chart using one single indicator. That one indicator is VOLUME. Whilst they will use every piece of news, world event, rumour and gossip to manipulate prices and the markets, this is one piece of information that they cannot hide (although even this they delay on larger orders).

Volume shows the activity of trading during the particular time period chosen which can be anything from 1 minute to 1 year. However, volume on its own does not tell us much, other than the number of securities traded in the period. Comparing one day with another tells us a little more, and it is then not difficult to see whether today’s volume is high, low or average. If you have 20 people standing in a row, it is easy to see who is the tallest, shortest, and those of average height. However, add the volume to the price spread for the time period, and suddenly using common sense and the knowledge above, you can begin to start reading the market.



Anna Coulling is a full time currency trader providing free advice and help to women traders and investors around the world via her web site. She has been trading for over 15 years, and has experience in a wide range of financial instruments including stocks,shares,options,spread betting and futures. For more information or to contact Anna please click on the link below : trading,investing,women,traders,shares,stocks,currency,forex,options,calls,puts.

20 JunEconomic Data And Its Influence On The Financial Markets

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The things which contribute to price levels and action in the financial markets are numerous and diverse, and their influences can vary through time, and across different markets. This article identifies the different types of Economic Data influences and the role they play.

There are two ways economic information can influence prices. The first is in the macro sense. Macroeconomic inputs include:

Interest Rates

Economic Growth (GDP)

Government Budget Surpluses/Deficits

Trade Balances

Commodity Prices

Relative Currency Exchanges Rates

Inflation

Corporate Earnings (both for individual companies and the broad collection)

These elements will generally all have long-term inputs in to the pricing of any given market. They do not tend to move in sharp, dramatic fashion, so their influences also tend to be seen over longer periods of time.

That said, the release of economic data related to the above can be seen to have serious impact in the short-term activity in the markets. This comes primarily in the form of data releases. Some of the most important are:

Employment Data

Trade Data

GDP growth figures

Consumer



John Forman is author of The Essentials of Trading (http://www.TheEssentialsofTrading.com) and a near 20-year veteran of the markets. John is Managing Analyst

20 JunHow Will the Presidential Cycle Influence the Financial Markets?

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With the economy on the brink of a recession, the stock market down and multiple failures of both banks and brokerage firms, will the US stock market provide us with a year end rally?

History says yes.

The Presidential Cycle has historically provided a positive return for the stock markets. In past, the markets have risen as elections approach and the current administration tries to stimulate the economy. The goal is to have voters go to the voting booths with jobs and feeling good about the economy. These increases the odds that the party in power will stay in power.

From 1942 to 2006 an investor who purchased the Dow Jones Industrials 25 months before each election and sold at the end of November would have been rewarded with a gain.

However, this can be a temporary effect. Historically the two years following an election are often the hardest on financial markets. Stimulus packages need to be paid for and tough economic decisions need to be made.

This may prove to be the case again as a similar pattern emerges. Congress and the White House are currently trying to revive our economy. Restrictions against short sellers in almost 800 stocks have helped to keep a floor on the stock market. These restrictions have caused much volatility and numerous news stories, but the financial markets have not really seen much of a negative or positive impact during the past few weeks.

After a stimulus package is created, the markets may give investors a positive return as we head into the November elections. But the two year cycle may again prove true as the next president will need to figure out how to pay for the stimulus and bailout packages that are currently being proposed.

 

© 2008 Rothe Financial Group, LLC

 

Retirement Planning at absoluteFOLIOS.com



John Rothe is President and Chief Investment Officer of the Rothe Financial Group in McLean VA. To get his FREE SPECIAL REPORT,
“Investing in a Secular Bear Market” visit Retirement Planning at absoluteFOLIOS.com

24 MayTrading Forex- Why Trade Currencies? (part 1 of 2.)



 

When a person wants to enter trading arena, one of the most important questions is “What should I trade?”. There is an overwhelming choice of financial instruments available for trading; stocks, bonds, futures, commodities, options, mutual funds, ETF’s, all kinds of derivatives like swaps and forwards and , of course, currencies or spot Forex.

Perhaps it’s not a surprise, that majority of people start their trading adventure in stocks. These financial vehicles are relatively familiar to most individuals. They are mentioned in the media every day, newspapers always provide price quotes for them. Most of us own or know somebody who owns stocks. That may be direct holding in brokerage account, or an indirect one, through mutual fund or retirement plan.

Taking that under consideration, why should a trader branch out into the Forex markets? Entire books could be (and have been) written on the subject. Reasons can be very diverse and compelling ,but also fairly technical and complex. We are going to focus on a few, most obvious, factors, mentioned here in no particular order.

Liquidity- Forex is the most liquid financial market in the world. Period. Published figures vary from source to source, but they all agree that total daily volume is in the neighborhood of 2 TRILION a day. It’s really hard to comprehend, but it’s more than all other financial markets in the world combined. To give it practical meaning- there is no problem to get in or out of the market no matter what size. There is always somebody on the the other side, counter party to your trade , which might not be a case in a lot of other markets.

Long term trends- strength or weakness in a given currency is usually a reflection of a given country’s economic health, national policy and fiscal state. These factors don’t change overnight. They are in place for a long time, often years, producing extended trends in currencies, which maybe easier to follow than moves in other markets. When you add some knowledge of technical analysis, these long term trend can produce number of potentially profitable trading opportunities.

Abundance of information- there is a constant flow of government’s economic reports, political developments, trade issues and a plethora of other fundamental data that media is quick to pick up and make available for immediate use. At times it might seem there is too much data, but if fundamental analysis is your thing, there is certainly enough to consider.

Around the clock trading- unlike stocks, Forex trading is not limited to set hours of local time where the exchanges are located. It moves around the globe as business day goes from Australia and New Zealand, to Tokyo and rest of Asia, followed by Europe and North America. Just as soon as businesses shut down in USA, they are opening again in the far east. Truly global market place.

Diversification- currencies are treated as a separate asset class. While any single cross can be, and sometimes is, correlated to some other instruments, a basket of currency pairs will have a life of it’s own, not moving closely in step with other assets. Great way to spread risks or simply diversify ones holding, potentially making some profits while remaining parts of portfolio are non productive.

 

These are but a few and very general reasons why Forex is worth at least taking a look at. In the second part of this article we will focus on some additional and quite specific aspects of trading in spot currency markets.



Mike P. Kulej is a Chief Forex Strategist for Spectrum Forex LLC. He specializes in mechanical trading systems as explained on www.spectrumforex.com . Spectrum Forex LLC offers numerous services to individual traders. With questions and comments e-mail him at kulej@spectrumforex.com.

20 MarFOREX – A Liquid Financial Market

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Foreign Exchange Market or in another short term “FOREX” or “FX” permit banks and other institutions to simply buy and sell currencies. Rather we can say that it deals with the currencies.

The principle of FOREX is to help worldwide trade and investment so that it helps businesses to exchange one currency to another. For e.g.: An Indian company allows importing US Based Company goods and they pay in dollars, although the business’s income is in rupees. So, in general expression we can say that a party buys a quantity of one currency by paying the quantity of another currency.

The FOREX trading started during the early 70’s when countries gradually switched to floating exchange rate (where currency value is allowed to rise and fall according to the market status) from the previous exchange rate regime (It is the way a country handles its currency in respect to foreign currencies and the FOREX).

The inimitable part of FOREX lies behind due to certain reasons:

It’s trading amount which has been increasing hugely. The tremendous liquidity of the share market. Its geological distribution. Its extensive hour of trading. The low margin income compared with other markets of unchanging income but the profit can be surely gained by large trading. And lastly the usage of leverage.

The average turnover of global FOREX is expected to be $3.98 trillion, according to the statement given by the Bank for International Settlements. Currently, forex is one of the major and the most liquid financial markets in the world. The traders who are included in this FOREX deal are central banks, currency speculators, different types of companies, governments and other financial organizations. And it is certain to say that the FOREX markets are growing continuously as the volumes grew a further 41% between 2007 and 2008, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

The forex trades are not centrally cleared markets rather there are number of inter-connected marketplaces where different currencies are dealt. Depending on the area where it has been placed and the market makers the FOREX rates are different rather than a single exchange rate Banks throughout the world participate in FOREX with main trading center such as New York, Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo and London.

Changes occurs in FOREX trade due to actual economic flows and these prospect are due to the gross domestic products (GDP) growth, price rises (inflation), interest rate, budget session and other economic conditions and these major are being declared publicly on proper time and date so that they can access at the same news.

One of the major determinants of FOREX rates lies is the political condition whether it is internally, regionally or internationally and these had created a deep effect on currency market. These rates are liable to change due to political unsteadiness and anticipations about the new party which can also create negative impact the growth of economy. Therefore the market psychology manipulate the FOREX in certain ways which includes unsettlement of the international events, long term trends that may rise from economic or political trends, “Buy the rumor, sell the fact” concept which allows the market being overbought or oversold and the economic numbers which can surely reflect economic policy and the numbers taken on a lucky charm based effect.

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